Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding in southeastern Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
Although average rains fell over the Greater Horn of Africa in late November and early December, the delayed onset of the October-December rainy season, combined with an erratic distribution of rains, has resulted in poor ground conditions in northern Kenya and southern Somalia.
Insufficient rainfall since the beginning of October has led to dryness and delayed planting in eastern Zambia, northern Mozambique, Malawi and southern Tanzania.
However, rainfall has improved since late December.In recent weeks, heavy rain has fallen in northern Zimbabwe and western and central Mozambique. In southern Malawi, these rains have resulted in widespread flooding, extensive damange to crops, livestock, and infrastructure, thousands of displaced people, and fatalities. It has also elevated the risk for downstream river flooding along the Shire, Licungo, Zambezi, Mazoe, Pungue, and Save Rivers.
A tropical low situated in the Mozambique Channel may intensify into a cyclone during the next week. Heavy rainfall and high winds are forecast, which may trigger flooding in coastal and interior areas of Madagascar that have already received above-average rainfall.
While western Madagascar has recently received an increase in rainfall, large seasonal moisture deficits and unfavorable ground conditions remain in Toliara Province. Below-average rainfall is expected during the next week.
While much of South Africa has received adequate rains since the beginning of the Southern African monsoon, the eastern parts of the country have received below-average rainfall, affecting agricultural conditions. Below-average rainfall forecast during next week are expected to worsen ground conditions.