Rainfall deficits expected to worsen in South Africa
Africa Weather Hazards
Since mid-December, consistent and significantly heavy rain in parts of southern Malawi and central and northern Mozambique have resulted in widespread flooding, extensive damage to crops, livestock, and infrastructure, displacement of thousands of people, and fatalities. This excess rainfall also has increased the risk for river flooding downstream along several rivers in the region. Above-average rain forecast for the next week will keep flooding risks elevated. 2 An extended period of poorly distributed rainfall has resulted in mid-season dryness across eastern Botswana, northern South Africa, and central and southern Mozambique. Continued dryness is forecast for some areas and may result in poor cropping conditions and wilting crops in the region.
Since late December, a sharp reduction in seasonal rainfall has led to mid-season dryness across southern Angola, northern Namibia, the Caprivi Strip, and Ghanzi and Ngamiland Districts in Botswana. Continued below-average rainfall is expected to inhibit crop development.
A prolonged dry spell has led to 30-day rainfall totals below the 15th percentile over central South Africa and bordering areas in southern Botswana. The lack of rain could negatively impact crops in Free State and North West Provinces of South Africa.
With little rain forecast for the next week, dryness is expected to worsen.Above-average and tropical disturbances during the past 30 days have resulted in widespread flooding across Madagascar, which has damaged crops and infrastructure, displaced tens of thousands of people and increased the risk for water-borne disease outbreaks, especially in the capital of Antananarivo. Heavy rains are forecast for the next week, which will keep flooding risks elevated.