Atypically high cereal prices and reduced livelihood options lead to Stressed and Crisis outcomes
KEY MESSAGES
Households in most southern provinces are currently facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, which are expected to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October through December. In most northern districts the majority of households are consuming own-produced cereals from recent harvests and are experiencing Minimum (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However as households finish their own-produced stocks from October onwards,
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes are expected through December.
Most households in the southern areas are increasing reliance on market purchases for staple cereal, which is pushing up prices to levels averaging 38-46 percent above previous year prices and 35 percent above the national average. Due to an undersupply of maize grain on most southern markets during the outlook period, maize meal demand and prices are also expected to increase to levels above the previous year.
Rural food insecurity for the 2015-16 consumption year is estimated at 16 percent (1.5 million people) of the population during the peak lean season from January to March 2016, compared to 6 percent last season. Livelihood options are projected to be constrained in most of the country, but especially in the south. Safety-net interventions by Government and partners islimited and lean season humanitarian assistance is expected to be lower than average due to a challenging funding situation.